JPMorgan says nation is in a recession

The investment bank's chief U.S. economist says the country is in a 'short' recession that started in January.

The U.S. economy is two months into a recession, according to a research note released Friday by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan anticipates the current recession remaining short, unless there is an "abrupt change in corporate behavior."

In a short recession, the bottom occurs at about five months, Thomas Lee an analyst with JPMorgan wrote in a research note. Lee said during typical "short" recessions, equity markets gain about 12% in the year following the bottom.

Lee said if the recession lasts more than 12 months, stocks are likely to have additional downside. Only eight of the 22 recessions since 1900 have lasted longer than a year, Lee added.

JPMorgan originally estimated the Standard & Poor's 500 index would rise to 1,590 during the year. It also did not predict a recession, instead saying the economy would face a period of "slow growth." With the revision in the economic outlook to a recession, JPMorgan now estimates the S&P 500 will bottom out in May before rising toward 1,450 by the end of the year.

The S&P 500 fell 11 points to 1,293 in afternoon trading.