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Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Wall Street to Fed: Not good enough

Stocks tank after the Fed cuts rates by a quarter-percentage point, rather than the half some had hoped. Dour comments on the economy factor in too.

Stocks slumped and bonds rallied Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by a quarter-percentage point, as expected, but disappointed some investors looking for a bigger cut.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 294 points, or 2.1 percent. It was the blue-chip indicator's seventh worst day of the year in terms of both the point and percentage loss.

The broader S&P 500 index lost 2.5 percent. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite lost almost 2.5 percent. The Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 3.1 percent.

"The stock market was looking for a bigger cut and so there's some disappointment," said Georges Yared, chief investment strategist at Yared Investment Research.

The selling was also influenced by the recent rally on Wall Street, which had left the Dow and S&P 500 within reach of the record highs hit in October.

"The market has gone up in recent weeks on expectations that the Fed would cut, so you're seeing a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' reaction," said Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones.

Wednesday brings the October trade balance and the weekly oil inventories report.

The central bank voted to cut the fed funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent. The fed funds rate is a key short-term lending rate that influences consumer loans. The central bank has cut it three times since September, in an attempt to loosen up tight credit markets and protect the economy from falling into a recession amid the fallout in the housing market.

Many Wall Streeters had been looking for the Fed to cut rates by a quarter-percentage point, or 25 basis points, particularly after last week's upbeat November jobs report cooled some fears about the slowing economy. But some on Wall Street had been looking for a bigger cut of a half-percentage point, or 50 basis points. There are 100 basis points in one percentage point.

The Fed also cut the discount rate, which influences bank loans, by 25 basis points, versus broader expectations for a 50-basis point cut.

In the accompanying statement, the bankers changed the language to suggest the economic slowdown was more pronounced than it had been at the time of the last meeting at the end of October.

"Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending," the bankers wrote.

That was more negative than in October, when the bankers said that economic growth was solid and strains in financial markets had eased somewhat. Although at that meeting, the bankers also said that the pace of expansion would slow as a result of the housing market correction.

Stocks had posted modest gains ahead of the decision but quickly turned lower following the afternoon decision and statement. Treasury market gains accelerated rapidly, lowering the corresponding yields.

"Clearly the stock market did not like that they [the bankers] sort of talked down the economy and then only gave them a quarter-point cut," said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. He said that the bond market was also reacting to the perception of a more negative economic outlook.

Treasury prices surged, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.97 percent from 4.15 percent late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

In corporate news, General Electric said that 2008 earnings should rise at least 10 percent to $2.42 per share, short of expectations for earnings of $2.49 per share. The stock lost 1 percent.

Citigroup announced that Vikram Pandit would take over the job of chief executive, over a month after former CEO Charles Prince stepped down.

However, Citigroup shares tumbled regardless of the announcement, falling with the rest of the banking sector. JP Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers were among the other bank stocks falling.

Declines were broad-based, with 28 of 30 Dow stocks falling, including General Motors, American Express, Alcoa, Boeing and Home Depot.

But other corporate news was less positive. Washington Mutual said late Monday that it was cutting both its dividend and more than 3,000 jobs in the wake of the housing and credit market crisis. Citi Investment Research downgraded the stock to "sell" from "hold."

Freddie Mac's chief executive said Tuesday that the company will probably lose another $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion over the next few years amid the ongoing housing market fallout.

H&R Block said it expects to report a steep quarterly loss, due to the impact of its faltering mortgage unit.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by over 5 to 1 on volume of 1.55 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by 3 to 1 on volume of nearly 2.23 billion shares.

In economic news, wholesale inventories were flat in October, the government reported, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.5 percent. Inventories rose 0.6 percent in September.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery rose $2.16 to $90.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for February delivery added $3.60 to settle at $817.10 an ounce.

Source - CNN Money

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