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Sunday, November 11, 2007

How $100 oil would cost you

Brace for record gas prices before the holidays and higher airfares.

Even if the price of oil doesn't breach the $100 mark, its recent rise will soon start to bite - at the pump, the airline ticket counter and possibly in your home.

The price of a barrel of oil has pulled back in recent days, but even at a current $96, gas prices could soon top their all-time record from last May of $3.22 a gallon.

Gas prices rose 14 cents last week and now average $3.04 a gallon nationwide, according to AAA. Many states have had gas over $3 for some time.

In the past few months, drivers have gotten off easy - gas prices hadn't kept up with the increase in oil prices. The main reason: Demand has been fairly tame.

But now, demand is set to pick up into the holiday season.

At the same time, supplies of gas could get tight as many U.S. refiners are undergoing maintenance, according to Schork. And they stand ready to decrease production if gas prices don't move higher, according to Kevin Norrish, a commodities analyst at Barclays in London.

As for next spring, when gas prices usually spike on anticipation of increased demand over the summer, Schork noted that in all likelihood we'll be going into the season with much less in gasoline inventories than last year.

You're that much closer to $4 a gallon gasoline, he said.

Expensive flights

Higher oil prices also mean higher airfare for travelers. As the price of crude rises, jet fuel prices also increase.

Last week, American Airlines - the nation's biggest carrier - raised the price of U.S. round-trip tickets by $20, and other major airlines followed suit.

American said it increased fares in an attempt to offset losses from rising crude oil and jet fuel prices.

Rising oil prices could also mean higher heating bills for those who use oil - mostly that means households in the Northeast, or about 7 percent of the country.

For them, oil's rise will be particularly painful: a 22 percent increase in bills from last year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The rest of the country doesn't face such steep increases, but they won't exactly get a free ride.

Roughly 50 percent of the country uses natural gas to heat their homes. And while natural gas prices aren't tied directly to the price of crude, those who use natural gas could see a 10 percent increase in home-heating bills.

Norrish expects natural gas prices to rise only modestly in the near future.

People who heat with electricity, about 30 percent of the nation, can expect to pay 4 percent more.

Source - BBC

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